宁夏连阴雨气候变化特征分析研究  

Study on the Characteristics of Climatic Changes of Continuous Rain in Ningxia

作　　者：张智[1,2] 梁培[1] 陈玉华[1] 梁旭[2] 

机构地区：[1]宁夏气象信息中心,宁夏银川750002 [2]宁夏气象防灾减灾重点试验室,宁夏银川750002

出　　处：《灾害学》2010年第1期69-72,88,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：宁夏科技攻关项目"宁夏极端气候事件及气象灾害的变化研究"(KGX-12-09-02);宁夏自然基金项目"宁夏连阴雨(雪)事件变化及机理研究"(NZ08160)

摘　　要：选取宁夏20个气象站的气象观测资料,运用数理统计法、Lepage检验和小波分析等方法,分析了宁夏全年和汛期(5-9月)连阴雨发生次数的气候变化特征及其突变、周期变化。结果表明:自1990年以后,宁夏全年和汛期连阴雨发生了明显变化,连阴雨发生次数均呈减少的趋势,年际变化和年代际变化特征明显;南部山区连阴雨明显多于北部地区,高发中心位于南部六盘山东麓,六盘山东麓连阴雨多于西麓;连阴雨未发生突变;全年连阴雨存在3～5年的短周期和10年、16～18年左右的长周期;汛期连阴雨存在着4～6年的短周期和12年的长周期。By selecting the meteorological data of 19 stations in Ningxia, using the methods of mathematical statistics, Lepage test and Mexihat wavelet analysis, the characteristics of climatic changes and their mutations and periodic changes of continuous rains in a whole year and the flood season （May to September） in Ningxia are analyzed. The results show that the continuous rainy climate in whole year and flood seasons in Ningxia has experienced marked changes since 1990. Continuous rain tends to decrease~ The interannual and interdecadal changes are obvious. Continuous rain in mountain areas in southern Ningxia is more than that in the northern part. The area at the east foot of Liupanshan mountain in southern Ningxia is prone to continuous rain. Continuous rain in area at the east foot of Liupanshan mountain is more than that in the area at the west foot. There are no abrupt changes . There exist a 3 -5 years short cycle of annual continuous rain, 10 years and 16 -18 years long cycles. For continuous rain in flood seasons, there exist a 4 -6 years short cycle and 12 years long cycle.

关 键 词：宁夏 连阴雨 气候特征 小波分析法 Lepage检验法 数理统计法 

分 类 号：P426.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]