一种基于蒙特卡罗模拟的群体协商评价方法及其应用  

Method and Application of Group Bargaining Evaluation Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

作　　者：张发明[1] 郭亚军[2] 易平涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学经济管理学院,江西南昌330031 [2]东北大学工商管理学院,辽宁沈阳110004

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2010年第2期63-67,共5页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70801013);辽宁省财政科研基金资助项目(2007B002)

摘　　要：针对综合评价中不同专家(或利益相关者)对属性权重看法不一致的情况,提出了一种蒙特卡罗模拟的群体协商评价方法。文章首先给出了一种专家影响力的确定方法;然后对各属性下专家的非一致性意见进行协商集结,得出属性权重的协商区间;最后在权重协商区间确定的基础上,利用蒙特卡罗模拟的方式来计算方案的优先排序概率,据此对方案进行排序,并给出了一个排序可信度的概念。文章最后给出了一个应用例。For inconsistency among the different experts （or stakeholder） groups＇ awareness of the attribute weight range, a method of group bargaining evaluation based on the monte carlo simulation is proposed. First, the paper gives a method of how to determine expert＇ s weight. Then it coordinates the experts＇ inconsistency opinions, and gets the attribute weight bargaining range. Last, we make use of Monte Carlo simulation to compute the alternatives＇ prioritization probability after obtaining the attribute weight bargaining range. The paper gives the concept of credibility to characterize the credibility of the sort after alternatives are ranked. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：协商 蒙特卡罗模拟 属性 群体评价 

分 类 号：N945.16[自然科学总论—系统科学]