区域全要素生产率的估算及其对地区差距的贡献  

The Estimation of Regional TFP and Its Role in China's Regional Disparities

作　　者：李国璋[1] 周彩云[1] 江金荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学经济学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2010年第5期49-61,共13页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

摘　　要：基于1978～2007年的省级面板数据,本文利用变技术进步参数的固定效应模型估计了我国的资本产出弹性,并根据索洛余值法测算了各省历年的TFP水平,同时对劳均产出差异进行了方差分解。结果表明:人力资本在我国经济增长中发挥着越来越重要的作用;要素投入差异是我国地区差距的主要决定因素,但是其贡献程度自20世纪90年代以来逐渐下降,而全要素生产率的作用则不断提高,将成为未来地区差距的主要决定因素。此外,本文还发现全要素生产率与要素投入的正交互作用对地区差距的影响越来越大。Based on the provincial panel data in 1978~2007, this paper esti- mates the output elasticity of capital in our country by fixed - effect model with var- ied technological progress parameters, and calculates the TFP of provinces over the years by Solow＇s residual method, and also we decomposes the regional disparities by variance decomposition. The result shows that. Firstly, human capital is playing an increasingly important role in China＇s economic growth; Secondly, the differ- ences of factor inputs is the main determinant of regional disparities, but its contri- bution has been declining since the 1990s, while the role of TFP has been rising and is expected to become the main deciding factor of future regional disparities. In addition, the paper also find that the positive interaction of TFP and factor inputs have enhancing influence on regional disparities.

关 键 词：地区差距 全要素生产率 索洛余值法 资本产出弹性 方差分解 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]