房地产价格波动的宏观经济及部门经济影响——基于可计算一般均衡模型的定量分析  

The Effects of Real-estate Price Fluctuation on the Economy

作　　者：原鹏飞[1] 魏巍贤[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家统计局统计科学研究所 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经贸学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2010年第5期88-103,共16页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"基于CGE模型的房地产市场变化影响及政策模拟分析"(70671086);教育部人文社科青年基金"兼顾通胀稳定和资产价格稳定的货币政策目标规则研究"(09YJC790187);对外经济贸易大学211工程第三期项目的资助

摘　　要：通过构建可计算一般均衡模型,本文对房地产价格波动对我国宏观经济及部门经济的影响进行了研究。主要发现如下:各行业产出与房地产价格的变动方向一致,但重工业、采掘业以及房地产业等行业所受到的影响相对较大;房地产价格上涨与下跌使得所有居民的收入都下降,但各收入等级城镇居民所受到的影响并不相同,而政府和企业的收入与房地产价格变动的方向一致。总体来看,房地产价格上涨对经济增长的带动效应较大,但相同幅度价格下跌的负面冲击更大。On constructing computable general equilibrium model （CGE）, we investigate the impacts of real estate price change on marco economic and sector e- conomy in China from a quantitative view. The main findings are as follows： The rising and fall of real estate price will cause corresponding increase and reduction in output of real estate industry and all other industries. Relatively, the impacts of real estate price change on industries such as heavy industry, utilities, minning and real estate industry itself are greater. Both of the rising and fall of real estate price will cause the decline of real income in all kinds of households, but that influ- ences on different income classes of urban households are different, that income of the government and the enterprise change in same direction with real estate price. Overall, although the rising of real estate have great growth effect on the econo- my, the adverse impacts of real estate price fall are even greater.

关 键 词：房地产价格 可计算一般均衡模型 产出 收入 就业 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]