上海GDP增长率的因素分解及其政策含义  

The Study on Shanghai's GDP Growth Rate and its Policy Implications

作　　者：高帆[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院,200433

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2010年第4期99-109,共11页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(编号:07CJL017);上海市首届"晨光学者"项目(编号:2007CG09)的一个阶段性成果

摘　　要：本文将GDP增长率分解为纯生产率效应、纯劳动投入效应、纯劳动结构效应及四种交互影响,并实证研究了1952～2008年上海GDP增长率变动的内在机制。结果显示:上海GDP增长率主要由纯生产率效应、纯劳动投入效应和纯劳动结构效应推动,其中纯生产率效应对GDP增长率提高起到了关键作用。1978年之后相对于1978年之前,上海GDP增长率对纯生产率效应的依赖度趋于增强。改革开放之后,上海GDP增长率整体依然具有纯生产率效应驱动的特征,但分阶段看,1978～1989年GDP增长率主要依赖于纯劳动结构效应,原因是此阶段市场化改革为劳动力跨部门流转提供了有利条件;1990～2008年GDP增长率主要依赖于纯生产率效应,原因是此阶段资本深化加速为部门劳动生产率提高提供了坚实基础。基于这些分析结论,可以得出上海实现经济持续增长的若干政策含义。The paper has decomposed GDP growth rate to pure productivity effect, pure labor input effect,pure labor structure effects and their four kinds of interaction, and researched Shanghai ＇s GDP growth rate and its internal mechanism in 1952 - 2008. The results show that： Shanghai＇s GDP growth mainly drived by pure productivity effect, pure labor input effect and pure labor structure effect, in which pure productivity effect has played a key role on GDP growth. After 1978 relative to before 1978 ,the dependence of Shanghai＇s GDP growth to pure productivity effect tends to increase. After Chinese economic reform and openness in 1978, Shanghai still has the pure productivity effect-driven features on GDP growth,but in 1978 -1989 GDP growth rate more depends on pure labor structure effect, because labor market-oriented reform has stimulated labor inter-sector mobility;in 1990 -2008 GDP growth more depends on pure productivity effect due to capital deepening has accelerated the sectorsqabor productivity. Based on these conclusions, the paper has given some policy implications on Shanghai＇s sustained economic growth.

关 键 词：纯生产率效应 纯劳动结构效应 资本深化 就业-产值结构偏差度 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]