基于灰色预测变化风速下的风电场经济评价  

Wind Farm Economic Evaluation Under Wind Speed Changing Based on Gray Prediction

作　　者：刘庆超 范炜 张伟 

机构地区：[1]国电机械设计研究院华电集团动力技术研究中心,浙江杭州310030

出　　处：《现代电力》2010年第2期91-94,共4页Modern Electric Power

基　　金：浙江省重大科技项目(编号:2009C11022)

摘　　要：以全寿命周期风资源评估思想对未来运营期风资源进行预测分析,得出每年的预测风速,根据此预测风速,得到每年的预测发电量,再进行项目的经济效益评价,从而更加接近实际情况。然后对项目风资源进行敏感性分析,以测风年份风速为基数,以20%的幅度进行敏感性分析,最终得出各个年份的经济效益。根据全寿命风资源理论进行分析得出的结论需要提高风电上网电价,才能使项目盈利。The full-life-cycle assessment of wind resources is used to forecast and analyze the future operating wind resources,and the forecast wind speed is obtained. The annual generating capacity is concluded based on the above data,and more accurate project＇s economic benefit assessment can be obtained. The sensitivity of the wind resources is analyzed. The measured annual wind speed is used as the base data. Based on the 20% range of the sensitivity analysis,the economic benefit of each year is concluded. According to the theory of the full-life-cycle assessment of wind resources,it is suggested that the electricity price of wind power need to be increased in order to make the project profitable.

关 键 词：风资源评估 经济评价 变化风速 灰色预测 灰色理论 

分 类 号：F407.2[经济管理—产业经济]