基于小波消噪的三江平原井灌区年降水随机预测模型  

Stochastic Forecasting Model of Annual Precipitation in Well Irrigation Paddy Areas in Sanjiang Plain Based on Wavelet Denoising

作　　者：刘东[1,2] 赵清[3] 付强[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学水利与建筑学院,哈尔滨150030 [2]东北农业大学农林经济管理博士后科研流动站,哈尔滨150030 [3]黑龙江农垦建三江分局水务局,富锦156300

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2010年第4期4-7,共4页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(No.30400275);中国博士后科学基金(No.20080440832);黑龙江省教育厅科学技术研究项目(No.11541024)

摘　　要：近些年来,由于水田面积迅速增加,导致三江平原井灌水稻区地下水位普遍下降,"吊泵"、局部超采现象时有发生。天然降水是地下水的重要补给来源,而年降水序列由于各种因素的影响往往含有噪声。为解决上述问题,以853农场为例,采用小波消噪技术和随机水文学方法对实测年降水资料进行消噪、差分和标准化处理,建立了年降水量小波随机耦合预测模型,精度检验结果表明,模型有效性和可靠性较高。该模型揭示了区域年降水量的时间变化规律,为853农场乃至整个三江平原充分利用天然降水、合理制定水稻灌溉制度以及地下水资源的可持续利用提供了科学依据。The rapid increase in paddy field acreage has led to wide descending of groundwater level in well irrigation paddy areas in Sanjiang Plain in recent years.More and more hanging pumps and partial overpumping have taken place in this area.Nature precipitation is the important groundwater recharge source,and annual precipitation time-series affected by various factors always have noises.In order to solve the above-mentioned problems,Farm 853 is taken as an example,the wavelet-stochastic coupling forecasting model that can forecast the annual precipitation was established after the difference and standardization treatment towards the actual observation annual precipitation datum based on the wavelet denoising technology and stochastic hydrology method.The results of precision test show this model has upper validity and reliability.The model reveals the time variation regularities of annual precipitation in this area.This paper can provide a scientific gist for fully utilizing natural precipitation,reasonably establishing paddy irrigation system and sustainable utilization of groundwater resources in Farm 853and even in the entire Sanjiang Plain.

关 键 词：三江平原 井灌水稻 年降水量 小波消噪 随机模型 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]