基于时间延迟理论的预防维修模型及案例研究  

Modelling of Preventive Maintenance Based on the Delay Time Theory and Case Study

作　　者：郑睿[1] 吕文元[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院,上海200433 [2]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2010年第2期48-54,共7页Chinese Journal of Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70301002;50875168);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金资助课题(3309303004)

摘　　要：本文旨在解决设备维修决策过程中预防维修检查数据缺乏情况下如何确定出合理的维修间隔期问题。首先,通过预防维修技术经济分析,提出了有关维修间隔期和总的停机时间之间关系的预防维修模型。其次,根据时间延迟维修理论,利用故障记录数据和预防维修检查数据的估计值,建立了统计模型并用来计算维修间隔期内故障次数的期望值。计算机仿真检验证明统计模型正确后,采用最大拟然法估计有关参数,这些参数包括缺陷发生率、时间延迟分布、检查出缺陷的概率等。最后是案例分析,应用估计参数和预防维修模型,计算出最佳的维修间隔期。This paper is mainly concerned on problems of optimising the preventive maintenance（PM） interval of equipment given inadequate inspection data at PM.Firstly,a PM model is proposed to describe the relationship between the total downtime and the PM interval by technical economic analysis.Secondly,according to the maintenance data of recorded failures and the estimated number of defects identified at PM,the statistical model based on the delay-time maintenance theory is developed to determine the expected number of failures within a PM cycle.The statistical model is tested to be correct by computer simulation test.Therefore,the parameter values of the statistical model,such as the process by which defects arise,of the delay time distribution and the probability of detecting a defect at PM are estimated by the method of maximum likelihood.Finally,a case study is given.An optimal inspection interval of PM is identified,which is based upon the estimated model parameters and PM model.

关 键 词：时间延迟 预防维修 参数估计 模型 

分 类 号：F224.7[经济管理—国民经济] TB472[一般工业技术—工业设计]