1978-2006年甘肃产业结构演进分析  

Evolution of industrial structure of Gansu Province from 1978-2006

作　　者：熊友云[1] 张明军[1,2] 刘园园[1] 金爽[1] 李瑞雪[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2010年第2期285-292,共8页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：甘肃省教育厅科研项目(0701-24);西北师范大学自然地理学重点学科资助

摘　　要：以1978-2006年统计数据为基础,采用产业经济学、计量经济学和统计学的相关方法,对甘肃省改革开放以来的产业结构演进进行了定量分析,对其与同期全国产业结构演进进行了比较。研究结果表明,1978年以来,甘肃与全国产业结构演进存在差异,主要表现为:甘肃第二产业比重明显偏低,第三产业比重偏高;甘肃产业产值比重与就业比重不均衡度明显高于全国,近年有扩大趋势;甘肃的产业结构转换速度缓慢,且主要依赖第三产业的推动,转换方向不尽合理;甘肃经济增长结构效应在减弱,增长结构中夕阳产业比重高,比较优势产业竞争力有所提高。Based on the statistical data from 1978 to 2006 and by using such indices as the entropy status of the regional industrial structure, similarity index in industrial structure, deviation degree and deviation factor of industrial structure of employment, conversion speed coefficient of the industrial structure and directional coefficient, this paper makes a quantitative analysis on dynamic evolution characteristics, such as the overall features of Gansu Province＇s industrial structure evolution, evolution stages , industrial structure of employment, conversion speed of the industrial structure and its shift-share since 1978, with the method of shift-share analysis. The results are as follows： Gansu＇s industrial structure evolution can generally be divided into three phases （1978 -1987,1988 -1997, 1998 -2006）. Gansu＇s industrial structure has entered a low-level and orderly state after three times industrial structure evolution. Compared with national fndustrial structure, there are a lot of similarities in Gansu＇s industrial structure, but similarities were decreased （ from 0. 999 in 1986 to 0. 924 in 2005 ）. And deviation factor of Gansu＇ s industrial structure of employment, in general, kept decreasing （from 641.4 in 1985 to 334.8 in 2004 ）, but it has increased a lot in recent years and reached 415 in both 2005 and 2006. In addition, it finds that there have been some differences in evolution of industrial structure between Gansu and the whole nation since 1978. The main features are as follows ： Firstly, the secondary industry proportion of Gansu was obviously lower and the tertiary industry proportion was higher than the national level. Secondly, imbalance between the proportions of and employment in Gansu was evidently higher than that of the whole nation, which has enlarged output value in the recent years. And there is a striking dual structure between towns and countries in Gansu. Thirdly, its conversion speed of the industrial structure was rather slow and such changes were main

关 键 词：产业结构演进 产业结构转换 SSM模型 甘肃 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]