多普勒雷达资料在中尺度模式短时预报中的应用  

An application of the Doppler radar data in the nowcasting using mesoscale model

作　　者：智协飞[1] 高洁[1] 张小玲 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点试验室,南京210044 [2]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象科学》2010年第2期143-150,共8页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金(2720);国家自然科学基金(40505010)

摘　　要：将国内新一代多普勒雷达基数据Lev-Ⅱ的9个仰角的原始反射率和径向风资料应用于中尺度模式ARPS(the Advanced Regional Prediction System),通过对2007年7月18日济南短时特大暴雨过程的个例研究,分析了雷达资料对初始场的改进效果及其对模拟结果的影响。结果表明,同时利用雷达反射率和径向风资料改进过的初始场能明显改善中尺度数值模式短时定量降水预报。对比风场发现,雷达径向风调整后在初始场中出现明显的中小尺度特征,能减少模式的spin-up时间。随着积分的进行,对水汽场的调节也有一定作用,但相对于风场调节不够显著。雷达反射率主要是改进初始场中的湿度参数,增加初始场中云水等含量。积分开始后,对风场调整也很显著。此次模拟,控制试验较好地预报出雷达回波的分布和水汽中心,对应的降水落区与实况也较为接近,但对雷达回波中心强度的预报略大,相应地降水量的预报也偏大。In order to test the effect of the Doppler radar data on the mesoscale model forecasting, a heavy rain event occurred on 18 July 2007 has been studied by applying the new generation Doppler raw radar data in China which contains 9 levels reflectivity and radial velocities in the ARPS （the Advanced Regional Prediction System） model. The results show that the initialization of both radar reflectivity and radial wind may significantly improve short-term quantitative precipitation forecasting by using mesoscale model. It was found that the radar radial wind adjustment may cause the small- and medium scale characteristics in the initial field and reduce the model spin-up time. As integral goes on, vapor adjustment has also an influence on the precipitation forecasting, but less significantly compared with the wind adjustment. Radar reflectivity mainly improves the humidity parameter and increases the cloud water content in the initial field. As integral begins it leads to a considerable wind adjustment. In this study, the distribution of radar echoes and water vapor centers have been predicted noticeably in the control run. The distribution of the forecasted precipitation is similar to that of the observations, but predicted radar echo intensity and correspondingly precipitation in the mesoscale model seemed to be larger.

关 键 词：ARPS模式 雷达径向速度 雷达反射率 

分 类 号：P415.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]