中国贸易增长的大国效应与“合成谬误”  

Big Country Effect of China＇s Trade Growth and ＂Composition Fallacy＂

作　　者：易先忠[1] 欧阳晓[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南商学院区域战略研究所 [2]湖南商学院经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410205

出　　处：《复印报刊资料（国际贸易研究）》2010年第3期12-22,共11页INTERNATIONAL TRADE

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目“大国综合优势形成机理及框架分析”（批准号200801057）.

摘　　要：外贸增长的“大国效应”会发生福利的对外“转移支付”，这一观点成为质疑立足比较优势实现出口导向发展战略的重要论据。本文基于UNCTAD1995年以来的商品贸易数据分析发现：2002年以来，由于其他以制成品出口为导向的新兴经济体的崛起和中国外贸的进一步扩张，中国外贸增长的“大国效应”才得以凸显，中国外贸增长对外福利转移效应在“合成谬误”条件下更加明显。这意味着中国外贸发展呼吁战略调整以避免“合成谬误”。The big country effect of foreign trade growth will induce welfare transfer abroad. This point of view has being an important argument against the export-oriented development strategy based on the comparative advantage. Based on the merchandise trade data of UNCTAD since 1995, this paper shows that： since 2002, big country effect of China＇s foreign trade growth has being highlighted as a result of the rising-up of other manufactured goods export-oriented emerging economies and the further expansion of China＇s foreign trade. The welfare transfer effect of China＇s foreign trade growth becomes more pronounced under the conditions of fallacy of composition. This means that the development of China＇s foreign trade called for strategic adjustment in order to avoid fallacy of composition.

关 键 词：外贸增长 福利转移 大国效应 合成谬误 

分 类 号：F321[经济管理—产业经济]