基于贝叶斯网络的航空器看错落错跑道事件研究  

Analysis of take-off or landing wrong runway in civil airport based on bayesian network

作　　者：高扬[1] 葛培荣[1] 李阳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学民航安全科学研究所,天津300300

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2010年第2期66-70,共5页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

摘　　要：目前,航空器看错、落错跑道事件在国际上是一个相当突出的安全问题,这个问题在我国近年也突显出来。导致航空器看错落错跑道的原因十分复杂,且此类事件及易引发严重的后果,造成人、财、物等多方面的损失,本文特对此类问题开展了一系列的研究。为了预防航空器看错、落错跑道事故的发生,查找诱发该类事故的因素,针对航空器看错、落错跑道事故的形成特点,笔者运用贝叶斯网络探讨其各影响因素间的关系和相互作用,该网络强大的逻辑推理能力,克服了不完备样本空间带来的不足,揭示了人、机、环境与管理因素相互作用的内在规律。为改善机场安全管理的科学性、可靠性,进一步降低事故率,提供了可靠的技术支持。At present,the incident of take-off or landing wrong runway in the international arena is a very prominent security issue,and in our country it has become more prominent too.In order to prevent incidents of take-off or landing wrong runway,and to find the factors that induce these incidents,a Bayesian Network（BN）model was used to explore the relationship and interaction mechanism among those factors that cause runway incursion.It overcomed the deficiencies attributed to the limitation of the sample capacity,and revealed the interaction law among human,aircraft,environments and management factors.It would provide a reliable technique to scientifically improve airport safety management,and further reduce accident rates.

关 键 词：贝叶斯网络 民航安全 航空事故 民用机场 航空公司 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学] V351.11[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]