感潮地区暴雨和潮水位遭遇组合的涝灾风险  

Waterlogging risk based on encounter of rainstorm and tidewater level in tide-influenced area

作　　者：刘曾美[1,2] 吴俊校[3] 陈子燊[2] 

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学水利水电工程系,广东广州510640 [2]中山大学水资源与环境系,广东广州510275 [3]广东省水利水电建设管理中心,广东广州510600

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（工学版）》2010年第2期166-169,174,共5页Engineering Journal of Wuhan University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(编号:50839005)

摘　　要：采用Copula函数建立感潮地区暴雨和外江(海)潮水位遭遇的联合分布,提出了设计组合下涝灾风险的分析方法,并定义和分析了暴雨和潮水位的联合风险率和同现风险率.通过研究中山市坦洲镇涝区的暴雨和潮水位的遭遇表明,AMH Copula函数能够较好地模拟暴雨与潮水位的联合分布;若设计暴雨为20年一遇,则与多年平均潮位或5年一遇潮位组合的排涝风险率分别不超过6.39%、9.58%;若设计暴雨为10年一遇,则与多年平均潮位或5年一遇潮位组合的排涝风险率分别不超过10.39%、7.04%;20年一遇暴雨、10年一遇暴雨分别与多年平均潮位或5年一遇潮位的同现风险率分别为0.086%、0.279%和0.173%、0.56%.The Copula theory is applied to construct the joint distribution of rainstorm and tidewater level.Based on the bivariate joint distribution,the approaches for calculating risk probability for waterlogging control,joint risk probability and simultaneous risk probability are put forward.The case study is conducted;and the results indicate that the AMH Copula function is capable of well simulating the joint distribution of the rainstorm and the tidewater level in Tanzhou section of Zhongshan city in Guangdong province.The risk probability for waterlogging control isn＇t more than 6.39% or 9.58% respectively,when the rainstorm with a return period of twenty years combines with the average value of annual maximum tidewater level or the tidewater level with a return period more than five years;while the risk probability for waterlogging control isn＇t respectively more than 10.39% or 7.04% when the return period of the rainstorm is ten years.The simultaneous risk probability is respectively 0.086% or 0.279%,0.173% or 0.56%,when the rainstorm with a return period of twenty years or ten years encounters the average value of annual maximum tidewater level or the tidewater level with a return period more than five years.

关 键 词：感潮地区 潮水位 涝灾风险 风险率 COPULA函数 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]