房地产宏观调控的政策效应研究  

Empirical Research on Effect of Macro Control on Real Estate

作　　者：晏国菀[1] 蒲勇健[1] 饶茜[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400030

出　　处：《技术经济》2010年第4期50-55,共6页Journal of Technology Economics

摘　　要：本文用两步多变量回归方法检验了我国2002—2008年房地产宏观调控政策的效果。总的来说,调控政策能够产生比较明显的市场反应;当政策传递出抑制房地产业的信号时,产生显著为负的市场反应;当政策传递出引导房地产市场发展的信号时,产生显著为正的市场反应;市场反应为正或负的政策对房地产市场的影响程度总体上没有显著差异。研究还表明,政策频发能够取得较好的调控效果,但过分密集的政策会因为和前次政策间隔时间过短而使政策效应受阻。This paper uses two-step regression to test the market reactions to the real estate macroeconomic regulation and control policies issued from 2002 to 2008.In general,these policies have apparent market reactions：when policies transfer restraining signals,reactions are remarkably negative;when policies transfer encouraging signals,reactions are remarkably positive;policies with different controlling directions have no remarkable impact on the market in total.Also,frequent regulations might lead to good results,but if they were too concentrated during a very short period,there must be too difficult to find any significant reactions.

关 键 词：房地产 政策事件 反应系数 调控手段 

分 类 号：F293.35[经济管理—国民经济]