改进的残差GM(1,1)模型在益阳市耕地预测中的应用  

Application of Gray Residual Model GM(1,1) on Forecast of Cultivated Land in Yiyang Municipality

作　　者：李文君 黄长军[2] 赵鑫[2] 

机构地区：[1]湛江市国土测绘大队,广东湛江524002 [2]湖南城市学院城市建设系,湖南益阳413000

出　　处：《水利科技与经济》2010年第5期498-500,503,共4页Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy

摘　　要：运用灰色系统理论建立GM(1,1),并用改进的残差GM(1,1)模型进行修正,对益阳市耕地面积进行预测,改进的残差修正方法使模型保持良好的适应性,有效提高了预测精度。应用此模型对益阳市耕地进行预测检验,结果表明改进的残差GM(1,1)模型具有较高的预测精度,模拟效果更好,其结果符合益阳市耕地数量变化规律,即益阳市耕地面积在未来几年内将呈现出小幅增长的趋势,但人均耕地面积仍旧处于联合国的警戒水平。因此保护耕地资源,合理利用和保护耕地都是刻不容缓的任务。The use of gray system theory GM （1, 1）, and residual GM （1, 1 ） model amendments to the city of Yiyang to predict the area of arable land, so that the model residuals amended to maintain a good adaptability to effectively improve the prediction accuracy. Application of residual model to predict land Yiyang test results show that the residual GM （ 1,1 ） model with high prediction accuracy, a better simulation results, the results of Yiyang City in line with the changes of the number of arable land, that is, Yiyang Urban land area in the next few years will be showing a continuing decline. Therefore the protection of arable land resources, rational use and protection of arable land are urgent tasks.

关 键 词：灰色理论 残差GM(1 1)模型 耕地预测 益阳市 

分 类 号：TV212[水利工程—水文学及水资源]