基于马尔柯夫模型的峨庄流域土地利用格局动态预测  

The Dynamic Analysis on Land Use Pattern in Erzhuang Watershed Based on Markov Model

作　　者：张荣[1,2] 刘霞[1,2] 张光灿[1,2] 张荣华[1,2] 常成[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学林学院水土保持系,山东泰安271018 [2]山东农业大学农业生态与环境重点实验室,山东泰安271018

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2010年第2期239-242,共4页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：山东省水利厅生态修复科技探索项目"水土保持生态修复工程效益监测与评价"

摘　　要：该文以峨庄流域为研究区域,在GIS技术支持下,以2000年和2005年的TM影像为原始数据,建立空间信息库,分析2个时期土地利用格局特征及变化,并利用马尔柯夫模型对未来土地利用格局趋势进行预测。结果表明:2000-2005年,峨庄流域居优势地位的土地类型始终是林地类型,耕地等其他土地类型镶嵌其中;未来15a流域总体趋势是朝着好的方向发展,耕地、未利用地面积在今后一段时期内仍呈减少趋势,到2020年耕地面积比例较2005年减少1.53%,林地、草地、水域及城镇村交通用地仍呈增加趋势,其中以林地增长幅度较大,到2020年其占比例将达到61.85%。根据模拟结果可调整各类土地利用格局,为峨庄流域宏观决策提供科学依据。This paper took Erzhuang watershed as the study area, in support of GIS technique and through the interpretation of TM imageries in 2000 and 2005, spatial information database was established and characteristics and changes of land-use pattern was analyzed and future land use pattern was predicted based on Markov model. The results showed that the woodland landscape has always been the dominant position in this area during 2000 -- 2005, farmland and other types of landscape were embedded in the woodland landscape. The next 15 years the overall trend of watershed toward to the right direction, the farmland and unused land for a period of time in the future is still to be reducing, by 2020 the proportion of farmland will be reduced the 1.53 percent compared with that in 2005;woodland, grassland, water and ur- ban village space are still to be increasing, woodland proportion will reach to 61.85% by 2020. According to simulation results, the land use pattern can be adjusted, which may serve as a scientific basis for land planning and management of Erzhuang watershed.

关 键 词：GIS技术 土地利用格局 马尔柯夫模型 

分 类 号：F301.24[经济管理—产业经济] TP79[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]