基于电力不足概率的互联系统备用量需求研究  

Research on Reserve Requirement of Interconnected System Based on Loss of Load Probability

作　　者：张夏平[1] 宋依群[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东省电力设计研究院,广东广州510663 [2]上海交通大学电气工程系,上海200240

出　　处：《广东电力》2010年第3期18-21,共4页Guangdong Electric Power

摘　　要：基于传统的发电系统停运模型,考虑系统负荷水平、联络线容量、联络线强迫停运率等因素,提出采用二维概率阵列法计算电力不足概率(loss of load probability,LOLP)并推导互联系统的备用需求模型。采用IEEE30节点进行仿真计算,验证备用需求模型确定互联系统备用容量方法的可行性。Reserve requirement model of interconnected system based on the traditional power system outage model is developed, considering the system load level, tie-line capacity, tie-line forced outage rate, etc. Two-dimensional array method is used to calculate the loss of load probability （LOLP）. IEEE 30 node simulation example demonstrates the feasibility of using reserve requirement model to determine reserve capacity of interconnected system.

关 键 词：电力不足概率 互联系统 备用需求 可靠性 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]