季节ARIMA模型在于桥水库溶解氧预测中的应用  

Application of Seasonal ARIMA Model in Forecast DO of Yuqiao Reservoir

作　　者：王绪鹏[1] 秦保平[1,2] 李云生[3] 高琼洁[1] 刘光逊[1] 王玉秋[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学环境科学与工程学院环境污染控制过程与基准教育部重点实验室,天津300071 [2]天津市环境监测中心,天津300191 [3]环境保护部环境规划院,北京100012

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2010年第2期39-41,共3页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项(2008ZX07631-01-04)

摘　　要：目前水库污染问题严重,而溶解氧是表征水体受污染程度和生态环境好坏的重要指标。介绍了ARIMA模型,以于桥水库三个监测站点1999～2005年的溶解氧含量为基础,运用季节ARIMA模型进行分析,预测2006年各监测站点的溶解氧含量,经与实际数据验证,说明该方法对于桥水库溶解氧浓度预测效果较好。The reservoir pollution problem is serious at present,and DO concentration is an important index to water quality and ecological environment.The seasonal ARIMA model was used to analyze Yuqiao Reservoir＇s DO concentration in three monitoring sites based on the date from 1999-2005,and to predicate the DO content of each monitoring site in 2006.The results showed that this method was able to well-describe the changes in DO of the reservoir.

关 键 词：溶解氧 水库污染 季节ARIMA模型 于桥水库 

分 类 号：X524[环境科学与工程—环境工程]