基于排序logit模型的城镇就业风险分析与预测——兼论金融信用危机情形下促进我国就业的应对措施  

Analysis and Prediction of Chinese Town Employment Risk Based on Order Logit Model

作　　者：黄波[1] 王楚明[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海立信会计学院金融学院,上海201620

出　　处：《中国软科学》2010年第4期146-154,共9页China Soft Science

基　　金：上海市科研创新重点项目(09ZS203);上海市教委重点学科建设项目(J51703)

摘　　要：依据logit模型对我国就业风险进行度量和预测,结果发现:以1997年亚洲金融危机为比照,时下的金融信用危机导致我国2009-2010年城镇失业率大于6.454%的可能性几乎为100%。为化解就业风险,应充分发挥非正规就业、中小企业和民营经济的作用,积极实行产业结构调整与产业跨区域转移,注意扩张性财政和货币政策在"保增长"的同时还要"促就业",同时也要完善劳动力市场发育水平并努力提高劳动者素质。Analysis and prediction of Chinese town employment risk based on order logit model show that the probability of unemployment rate in town to be above 6. 454% is almost to be 100% in 2009 and 2010 by contrast to Asia Financial Crisis in 1997. The countermeasures to promoting employment in the future including： development of informal employment and medium and small sized private - run enterprises, adjustment of industry structure and cross - regional industry transfer, employment of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies for more jobs, improvement of labor market and quality of labor force as well.

关 键 词：城镇就业风险 金融信用危机 排序logit模型 

分 类 号：F240.0[经济管理—劳动经济]