基于结构方程模型的吴起县农业生态经济系统耦合关系  

Coupling relationship of agricultural eco-economic system in Wuqi County based on structural equation model

作　　者：苏鑫[1] 王继军[1,2] 郭满才 姜志德[2] 李慧[2] 牛艳利[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院水利部水土保持研究所,陕西杨凌712100 [2]西北农林科技大学,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2010年第4期937-944,共8页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40771082);国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD09B10);中国科学院知识创新重大工程项目(KSCX-YW-09-07)资助

摘　　要：基于2008年吴起县农户调查资料,利用结构方程模型对吴起县农业生态经济系统耦合关系进行了分析.结果表明:具有相关关系的农业资源和产业态势对系统耦合有一定影响,其影响系数分别为0.14和1.00;农业资源与产业态势之间的相关系数为-0.11,说明吴起县的产业发展并非建立在对农业资源有效利用基础之上,农业资源对经济效益的变化没有直接作用;产业的发展主要建立在对农业资源之外的能量和物质的开发利用上,导致产业态势对经济效益的直接路径系数为-2.95,总的路径系数仅为0.23.从农业生态系统与经济系统的关系及其耦合的角度看,目前研究区农业系统建立在不稳定的、较少依赖于本系统资源的耦合态势下,即在农业生态经济系统良性耦合机制的建立与形成过程中潜伏了较大危机.为此,需要提高牧草等农业资源的利用率,发展林草及其相关产业.Based on the peasant household investigation in Wuqi County in 2008,the coupling relationship of agricultural eco-economic system in the County was analyzed by using structural equation model.It was shown that agricultural resources and industrial situation had definite effects on the system coupling,with the influence coefficient being 0.14 and 1.00,respectively.There was a negative correlation coefficient（-0.11） between the agricultural resources and industrial situation,suggesting that the industrial development in the City was not based on the effective utilization of agricultural resources,and the agricultural resources hadn＇t direct effects on the economic benefit.The direct path coefficient between the industrial situation and economic benefit was -2.95,and the total path coefficient was only 0.23,illustrating that the industrial development in the City was mainly relied on the utilization of other energy and material resources.From the viewpoint of the coupling relationship of the agricultural eco-economic system,it was considered that the current agricultural ecosystem in the County was unstable,and less depended on outside resources.In other words,there was a potential crisis in the process of building and forming a well coupled agricultural eco-economic system.Therefore,this county should improve its utilization of agricultural resources through developing its pasture and forest industries.

关 键 词：结构方程模型 农业生态经济系统 耦合关系 农户 吴起县 

分 类 号：F327[经济管理—产业经济]