基于LEAP的居民生活能源与环境情景分析  

Energy and environment scenario analysis for resident sector based on LEAP

作　　者：遆曙光[1] 王韵[2] 徐广印[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学机电工程学院,河南郑州450002 [2]河南省信息管理学校,河南郑州450008

出　　处：《河南农业大学学报》2010年第2期229-232,共4页Journal of Henan Agricultural University

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2008BADC4B02)

摘　　要：应用LEAP软件建立河南省居民生活能源与环境模型.利用该模型模拟3个不同情景下河南省居民生活在2005—2030年间能源需求和环境影响.模拟结果表明,政策执行力度及技术推广程度对能源需求量及用能结构有较大影响,3个不同情景下的能源需求量的最大差异量达到9.8 M tce,而且终端直接消费能源所产生的CO2排放量在3个情景下呈不同的下降趋势.To assess the energy demand and environment effect for household sector, a bottom-up LEAP Henan model was developed to simulate three different scenarios from 2005 to 2030. In this paper, taking Henan Province as an example, simulation results show that： the implementation of policies and technologies to promote the degree of intensity of energy demand and use can produce a greater impact on the structure. The three different scenarios of the greatest differences in energy demand have reached 9.8 Mtce, and the direct consumption of energy by the end of the CO2 produced emissions in three different scenarios was a downward trend.

关 键 词：居民生活用能 LEAP 情景分析 环境影响 

分 类 号：F123[经济管理—世界经济]