民勤县节水型农业系统优化模型分析  

Optimization Model of Agricultural System to Water-Saving in Minqin County

作　　者：常兆丰[1,2,3] 韩福贵[1,2,3] 刘克峰 

机构地区：[1]甘肃民勤荒漠草地生态系统国家野外观测研究站,甘肃民勤733300 [2]甘肃省荒漠化防治重点实验室,甘肃兰州730070 [3]甘肃省治沙研究所,甘肃兰州730070 [4]兰州市第十二中学,甘肃兰州730050

出　　处：《农业系统科学与综合研究》2010年第2期227-231,共5页System Sciemces and Comprehensive Studies In Agriculture

基　　金：国家"863"计划项目(JY03-B-28-2)

摘　　要：随着地下水资源的迅速减少，石羊河下游民勤的生态环境正在迅速退化。对此，民勤县主要通过“关井压田”控制地下水资源的开采量。那么，不同的地下水开采限量会对当地农业产值产生什么影响呢？为此，运用农户调查资料和线性规划方法，以水资源利用量为限额对农业生产系统进行了优化分析。结果表明：通过调整种植业和养殖业结构，可节水2亿m^3-3亿m^3，耕地面积可由现在的62028．7hm^2压缩到43 129.6hm^2。种植业方面应扩大玉米和苜蓿面积，压缩其他作物面积。苜蓿灌水量少，应大面积发展。节水和压缩耕地面积必须循序渐进，同时要做好富余人口安置和移民工作。建立水市场。用经济杠杆调节水资源的利用效益是干旱地区节水和提高水资源利用效益的必由之路。图2，表4，参18。The ecological environment is rapidly degraded with the rapid decline of groundwater resources in Minqin county at the downstream Shiyang river. To this end, the Minqin county tries to control the exploitation of groundwater resources primarily through the ＂shut-will and pressure-farmland＂. In that case, what effect does it will have for agricultural output in different limits of groundwater exploitation？ In this paper, agricultural production systems are analyzed optimizing by restricting the conditions of water resources and by farmer＇s data and by the linear programming method. The results showed that 2 × 10^8m^3 -3 × 10^8m^3 water can be saved by adjusting the planting and breeding industry. The arable land can be cut from now 62 028.7 hm^2 down to 43 129.6 hm^2. Area of corn and alfalfa should be expanded and area of other crops should be reduced in the plantations sector. Alfalfa should be expanded in area since its low water requirement. Saving water and the compression cultivated area must proceed in an orderly way. Simultaneously, we must complete the extra population placement and the immigration, establish water market, and use economic levers to regulate the use efficiency of water resources. This is the only way to improve water use efficiency in arid regions.

关 键 词：水资源 耕地面积 农业系统 线性规划 优化分析 

分 类 号：S111[农业科学—农业基础科学]