基于AHP层次分析法的东北农业可持续发展能力的动态评价及分区预警  

Kinetic Evaluation and Regional Warning System for Sustainable Development Capability of Agriculture in Northeast China by Step Analysis of AHP

作　　者：刘志强[1] 金晶 陈渊[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所,黑龙江哈尔滨150081 [2]哈尔滨银行,黑龙江哈尔滨150010

出　　处：《农业系统科学与综合研究》2010年第2期240-247,共8页System Sciemces and Comprehensive Studies In Agriculture

基　　金：2006年国家基金面上项目(40671075);黑龙江省科技厅软科学研究计划课题(GB08D101-3)

摘　　要：在原来农业可持续发展模型基础上加以改进,运用动态评价和动态预警方法,分5方面对东北农业可持续发展能力进行了多时段和多地域的评价预警,确定出东北37个地市农业可持续发展能力、农业资源、农业环境、农业基础和农业生产的强弱区域及其演化走势,揭示出资源减少和生态恶化的驱动机制,提出保持和提高农业可持续发展能力的宏观调控对策与农业产业布局方案。图11,参9。Based on the agricultural sustainable development model, agricultural sustainable development capability was evaluated on the scale of multi - periods and locations for this capability warning from 5 aspects with kinetic evaluation and warning methods. The agricultural sustainable development capabilities, agricultural resources, agricultural environment, agricultural infrastructure, capability in agriculture production and evolvement trend were evaluated in 37 cities in Northeastern China. Mechanism for resource reduction and ecological deterioration, countermeasures on macro scale and outline of agricultural industry for maintaining and improving agriculture sustainable development capability are proposed.

关 键 词：东北 可持续发展 动态评价 动态预警 

分 类 号：S115[农业科学—农业基础科学]