江淮地区小麦涝渍灾害风险评估与区划  

Risk assessment and regionalization of waterlogging disaster for wheat in Jianghuai Region

作　　者：盛绍学[1,2] 霍治国[3] 石磊[2] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室,合肥230031 [2]安徽省气象局,合肥230061 [3]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《生态学杂志》2010年第5期985-990,共6页Chinese Journal of Ecology

基　　金：国家农业科技成果转化资金项目(2008GB24160440);淮河流域气象开放研究基金资助项目

摘　　要：基于灾害风险分析理论,根据历年气候资料,小麦生长发育、种植面积和产量资料,对江淮地区各县小麦涝渍脆弱性、自然气候风险、灾损风险和抗灾能力等方面进行分析评估,建立了包括涝渍脆弱度、气候风险指数、灾损风险指数、涝渍综合风险评估系数等不同的涝渍风险表征模型,并构建了涝渍综合风险评估系数作为区划指标,对江淮地区小麦涝渍灾害风险进行了空间区域划分。结果表明:涝渍脆弱度、气候风险指数、灾损风险指数和抗灾力系数4个因子的组合,可以较好地反映江淮地区小麦涝渍风险特征;按照高、较高、中和低4个等级对小麦涝渍综合风险进行了区划;安徽省江淮南部为高风险区;沿淮中部以及江淮中部南部、沿洪泽湖区域为涝渍较高风险区;河南省33°N以南区域、以及安徽、江苏省淮北中部区域为涝渍中风险区;33°N以北地区为涝渍低风险区。Based on the theories of disaster risk analysis, the climate data over the years, and the information about wheat growth, its planting area, and grain yield in Jianghuai Region, this paper analyzed the waterlogging vulnerability, climatic risk, disaster-loss risk, and anti-disaster capability of wheat in the Region. The models characterizing the waterlogging risk for wheat, including waterlogging vulnerability, climatic risk index, disaster-loss risk index, and comprehensive assessment coefficient of waterlogging risk, were established, and the regionalization of waterlogging risk for wheat in Jianghuai Region was made, with the comprehensive assessment coefficient of waterlogging risk as the indicator. In the Region, the characters of the waterlogging risk could be better characterized by the combination of four factors, including waterlogging vulnerability, climatic risk index, disaster-loss risk index, and anti-disaster capability. The comprehensive risk of waterlogging for wheat was classified into four levels, i.e., high, medium high, medium, and low. The south Jianghuai Region in Anhui Province belonged to high risk area; the areas along the middle part of Huaihe River, middle-south part of Jianghuai Region, and Hongze Lake belonged to medium-high risk area; the south of 33°N in Henan Province and the middle part of the north area along Huaihe River in Anhui and Jiangsu provinces belonged to medium risk area; and the north of 33 °N belonged to low risk area.

关 键 词：小麦 涝渍 风险评估 风险区划 

分 类 号：S512.1[农业科学—作物学] S422