1950-2003年太湖流域洪旱灾害变化与东亚夏季风的关系  

Relationship between Flood/Drought Disasters and East Asian Summer Monsoon in the Taihu Lake Basin during 1950-2003

作　　者：尹义星[1] 许有鹏[1] 陈莹[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210093 [2]福建师范大学地理科学学院,福建福州350007

出　　处：《冰川冻土》2010年第2期381-388,共8页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(40730635);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(200701024);国家自然科学基金项目(40571025)资助

摘　　要：基于太湖流域1950-2003年洪旱灾害等级序列及相应气候指数,采用改进的Mann-Kendall检验、小波分析等方法,研究流域洪旱灾害与东亚夏季风的变化及其相互联系.结果表明:太湖流域在20世纪80、90年代洪灾加剧,原因在于东亚夏季风在70年代末以来呈减弱的趋势,使梅雨期长度和雨量增加.近50a太湖流域洪旱灾害频谱结构发生变化,从以年代际振荡成分为主减弱为以年际变化为主,即变化周期在逐渐变小,同时东亚夏季风指数也发生了类似的变化.流域洪旱灾害与东亚夏季风之间的联系,在70年代以后强于70年代以前,二者反位相关系以1975-1985年左右最为显著.In the paper,the relationship between flood/drought disasters in the Taihu Lake basin and East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） is investigated based on flood/drought rank series （FD） in the basin and climatic indices over the recent 50 years. The adopted methods include improved Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis. Some important conclusions are obtained as follows. First,flood disasters intensified in the 1980s and the 1990s,which is mainly due to the intermittent drizzles in the rainy season increasing during recent decades,and the weakening of EASM since the late 1970s,resulting in increasing precipitation. Second,the FD series underwent spectra change during the recent 50 years：the inter-decadal variation has declined while the inter-annual variation has become evident,i.e. the main periods of FD shortened. This phenomenon results from the similar changes in EASM indices. Third,the relation between FD and EASM is tighter after the 1970s than that before the 1970s; the anti-phase relation between them was the most evident from 1975 to 1985.

关 键 词：太湖流域 洪旱灾害 东亚夏季风 MANN-KENDALL检验 小波分析 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]