基于多目标的杨树速生丰产林主伐决策分析  

Clear Cutting Decision Analysis of Poplar Fast-Growing and High-Yield Plantation for Multiple Objective

作　　者：丁凤梅[1] 鲁法典[1] 侯占勇[1] 高岩[1] 韩峻[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东农业大学农业生态与环境重点实验室林学院,山东泰安271018 [2]邹城市林业局,山东邹城273500

出　　处：《生物数学学报》2010年第1期127-136,共10页Journal of Biomathematics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(30771726)资助

摘　　要：经济效益综合评价是产业决策研究的重要内容.从系统工程观点来看,经济效益综合评价本质上是一个有限方案多目标决策问题.因此,本文采用多目标决策法对杨树速生丰产林的主伐决策进行研究,以年均净现值、内部收益率、土地期望价、效益成本比、成本利润率为指标,提出用熵技术法确定评价指标权重,结合"理想点"法、TOPSIS法和线性加权和法三种方法对决策方案进行排序择优,得到不同排序结果,最后用平均值法得到最终综合评价结果.结果表明,对所研究的密度为10×10m^2、8×8m^2、6×8m^2、5×6m^2的杨速生丰产林进行分析得到综合评价结果,其最优主伐龄分别为:13年、10年、9年、9年.随着密度的增大,经济成熟龄提前.本研究表明该方法对杨树速生丰产林的主伐决策研究是有效可行的.The economic benefit evaluation is one of the important contents of the industrial decision. Prom the angles of systems engineering, essentially, the economic benefit evaluation is a multi-objective decision-making problem. The paper studies clear cutting decision of poplar fast- growing and high-yield plantation for multiple objectives. Using annual mean net present value, internal rate of return, land expected value, benefit cost ratio and profit cost rate as evaluation indices, applied entropy technique method to determine the weight of indices, and the alternatives are ranked by ideal point method, TOPSIS, the linear weighted sum method. Finally, mean value method is used to get the final ranking result. The result shows that 13a, 10a, 9a, 9a is economic mature age of Poplar Fast-growing and High-yield Plantation in the density of 10×10m2、8×8m2、6×8m2、5×6m2 .The mature age of higher density stands was earlier than that of lower density stands. The result of the study testified the feasibility and reasonability of this method.

关 键 词：速生丰产林 多目标决策 熵技术法 经济成熟 

分 类 号：S752.1[农业科学—森林经理学]