冬小麦高产高效栽培投资风险预测模拟  

Simulation Studies on the Calculation of Investment Risk in Optimal Cultivation Management for the High Yield and High Efficiency of Winter Wheat

作　　者：张玉峰[1] 杨武德[1] 白志明[1] 白晶晶[1] 王大成[1] 牛波[1] 冯美臣[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西农业大学文理学院数学系,山西太谷030801

出　　处：《生物数学学报》2010年第1期182-190,共9页Journal of Biomathematics

基　　金：山西省基础研究(自然科学基金)项目(20051073);农业部引进948项目(2003Z64)

摘　　要：在产量形成规律及投入产出效益规律基础上,建立了冬小麦高产高效栽培投资风险预测模拟模型.并以Window XP为平台,采用VB(Visual Basic)语言编程,建立了相应的可视化模拟系统。通过模拟,生产者可以预测在当时的市场价格下小麦生产的投资风险大小,并预测生产的最大利润及小麦产量.模拟系统还可以用于决策部门对市场价格的宏观调控,如果希望增加农民收入,鼓励农民生产粮食,决策部门可以先定单位面积小麦生产利润值,通过模拟得适宜的肥粮价比,用来调控市场价格,The paper establishes a calculation model of investment risk in optimal cultivation management for the high yield and high efficiency of winter wheat, and works out analog computer program based on the mathematical models. The software （programmed with Visual Basic6.0） was designed on the basis of windows interface, and with menu system and command buttons. Using the model we can predict yield, profit and investment risk in cultivation manage-. ment of winter wheat. Proportion imbalance of fertilizer price to grain price is a main reason of causing investment risk, using the model the proper prices of fertilizer and grain could be simulated by computer, and the prices were used to provide feasible proposal for macroscopic adjustment of market price.

关 键 词：冬小麦 高产 高效 投资风险 

分 类 号：F302.3[经济管理—产业经济]