树轮记录的中天山150年降水变化特征  

The 150-year Precipitation Change Recorded by Tree Ring in the Central Tianshan Mountains

作　　者：尚华明[1,2,3] 魏文寿[1,2] 袁玉江[1] 喻树龙[1] 陈霞[2] 张同文[1] 刘新华 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所新疆树木年轮生态实验室中国气象局树轮年轮理化研究重点开放实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [3]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049 [4]哈密林场,新疆哈密839000

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2010年第3期443-449,共7页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200706008;GYHY200806011);科技基础性工作专项(2007FY220200);中国气象局新技术推广项目(CMATG2008Z13);中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(Sqj2008003)资助

摘　　要：位于伊犁河谷东端的巩乃斯河源区,是新疆乃至中国西北地区降水最为丰富的地区之一。利用位于巩乃斯河源区的雪岭云杉树轮宽度资料,分析了树轮宽度对山区气候要素的响应关系,发现制约树木径向生长的主要因子仍然是水分条件。利用一元线性回归模型建立树轮宽度标准化年表与巴音布鲁克站和天山积雪雪崩站上年7月到当年6月降水平均值的转换方程,重建了这一区域150年来的降水变化历史,该转换方程的方差解释量达到55.8%,较好地通过了统计检验,重建降水序列与伊犁地区旱灾历史记录吻合。对150年降水序列的变率特征分析表明,降水变率在1910年前后明显增大,表明极端降水事件发生频率增加。研究区降水变化趋势与整个天山山区的降水变化趋势一致,但没有记录20世纪20年代发生在我国北方大范围的干旱事件。Located in the eastern part of the Ili River Valley, the riverhead area of the Kunes River is one of the regions rich in precipitation in Xinjiang and even in northwest China. In this paper, the tree-ring data of Picea schrenkiana growing in the riverhead area of the Kunes River are used to analyze the response of tree-ring width to climatic factors in the mountainous region. The results show that the dominant factor affecting the radial growth of P. schrenkiana trees is soil moisture content. The unitary linear regression model is used to develop a transfer equation as to reveal the relationship between the standardized chronology of tree-ring width and the average precipitation at the Bayanbulak Meteorological Station and the Tianshan Station for Snow and Avalanche Research during the period from previous July to next June and the precipitation change at these two stations in recent 150 years. The explained variance of the transfer equation is 55.8% and is passed the statistical test well. The calculated precipitation series were consistent well with the drought history record in the Ili region. After analyzing the variability of precipitation series in recent 150 years, it is found that the precipitation variability was high around 1910, which reveals that the occurring frequency of extreme precipitation events was increased. The change trend of precipitation in the study area was consistent with that in the whole Tianshan Mountains, but the extensive severe drought event in the late-1920s in north China was not revealed by using the tree-ring data.

关 键 词：树木年轮 中天山 降水变率 巩乃斯河 伊犁 新疆 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]