煤炭资源开发与山西经济增长之间关系的实证研究  

An Empirical Research on Relationships between Coal Exploition and Economic Growth in Shanxi Province

作　　者：李连光[1,2] 景普秋[1] 

机构地区：[1]山西财经大学经济学院,山西太原030006 [2]中国人民银行大同市中心支行,山西大同037008

出　　处：《中北大学学报（社会科学版）》2010年第2期47-54,共8页Journal of North University of China：Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"煤炭资源开发与区域经济发展--兼论煤炭资源型区域经济发展方式的转变"(08BJL052);2008年度山西省高等学校优秀青年学术带头人支持计划资助项目"煤炭资源型区域经济发展方式转型:基于山西的理论与实证研究"

摘　　要：运用实证方法,对煤炭在山西经济增长中的作用进行了研究。通过大量的计量分析可知,山西的煤炭产值对GDP的影响很大,在其他条件不变的情况下,单纯增加原煤产量对山西名义GDP的影响是反方向的;山西GDP对煤炭开发的依赖度越大,山西与全国实际GDP增长率的差值的绝对值就越大,其中还存在一个"阈值";从山西的实证研究看煤炭工业产值与总产出之比达8%是山西经济是否属于资源经济的"门槛";山西省各地级市GDP对原煤产量的弹性各不相同。山西省各个地级市在增加原煤产量来拉动GDP的增长的潜力在1997年以来呈现逐年减小的趋势。Shanxi is the base of the energy resource and heavy chemical industry of China,but what role does the famous Shanxi coal economy play in the growth of Shanxi economy？ This article carries out the empirical research of Shanxi coal economy. By large amount of econometric research,it has found that the production of coal industry has a great effect on GDP of Shanxi province. When other situations stay unchanged,that simply increase of the production of coal functions negatively on the Shanxi GDP. The more the province relies on the coal exploration,the larger the absolute value of the difference value between Shanxi and whole country,which includes a ＂threshold value＂ ; from the viewpoint of empirical study of Shanxi coal industry,the ratio of the output value of coal industry and the output value of gross industry reach 8% which is the boundary determining a resource-based economy; the elasticity of prefecture-level cities of Shanxi province varies. And there has been a tendency in which the potential of reliance on the increase of the coal output to pursue the growth of GDP has been decreasing year by year since 1997.

关 键 词：煤炭资源 山西 经济增长 

分 类 号：F061.2[经济管理—政治经济学]