关于我国现金投放量的研究  

A Study on the of Currency in Circulation of China

作　　者：冯科[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学经济研究所,北京100080

出　　处：《经济问题》2010年第5期4-9,共6页On Economic Problems

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目:"我国货币政策体系与传导机制研究"(08JZD0015;主持人为北京大学经济学院院长刘伟;冯科为课题组成员)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：在我国货币政策体系中,流通中现金M0是最重要的观测目标之一。分析了影响我国现金投放量的各种基本因素,同时,对现金漏损进行了分析和测算。在此基础上,通过分析1999年第一季度至2008年第四季度的相关历史数据,建立了我国现金投放量计量模型,并对2010～2014年我国的现金投放量进行了预测。认为加强现金的监控与管理对于确保金融稳定和促进经济发展有着十分重要的意义。In China＇s monetary policy system,currency in circulation （M0） is one of the most important observation goals. The author analyzes the factors that affect the amount of currency issued into circulation,while the currency leakage were analyzed and measured. On the basis of these,by analyzing the historical data from the first quarter of 1999 to the fourth quarter of 2008,the author has established an econometric model,and has used this model to predict the amount of currency issued into circulation from 2010 to 2014. Finally,the author pointed out that it’s important to strengthen the monitoring and management of currency for financial stability and economic development.

关 键 词：现金 投放量 漏损 

分 类 号：F830.31[经济管理—金融学]