基于PDL模型的城市化水平预测方法研究  

The Research on Prediction Method of Urbanization Level Based on PDL Model

作　　者：丁刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]福州大学公共管理学院,福州350002

出　　处：《西北农林科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2010年第3期32-38,共7页Journal of Northwest A&F University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：福建省软科学重点项目"国际金融危机背景下转变福建省经济发展方式的对策研究"资助(2009R0048)

摘　　要：在城市化水平预测领域,经济因素相关分析法因其在预测时充分考虑了经济发展对城市化水平的影响而得到广泛使用。然而,在以往研究中,当实际应用经济因素相关分析法对城市化水平进行预测时,往往并未从动态发展的角度出发,将既往历年的经济发展水平作为解释变量引入回归方程中去,在此基础上进行实际预测时必然会因为遗漏掉重要信息而使预测结果的可信性大打折扣。在对混合有限PDL模型应用于我国城市化水平预测领域的必要性进行阐述的基础之上,以PDL及ARMA模型的组合应用为例,对于经济因素相关分析法在我国城市化水平预测领域的应用进行了尝试性的探讨分析。结果表明,与仅考虑了当期经济发展水平对城市化发展的影响所建立的传统线性预测模型相比,PDL模型的预测效果更为理想。In the field of predicting urbanization level,the method of economic factors analysis is widely used due to its full consideration of the economic development impact on urbanization level.However,in the previous studies,applying the economic factors analysis method to predict urbanization level usually did not start from the dynamic development perspective,which took the past levels of economic development over the years as the explanatory variables into regression equations,and it was bound to miss important information which led to great reduction of the credibility of the forecast results.In this article,based on describing the necessity of applying the mixed finite PDL model to predict urbanization level in China,taking the combined application of ARMA and PDL models for example,we conducted tentative discussion and analysis of applying the economic factors analysis method to predict urbanization level in China.The results showed that compared with the traditional linear prediction model which only considered the impact of the current economic development level on urbanization development,PDL model＇s prediction results are more satisfactory.

关 键 词：城市化 预测 PDL模型 ARMA模型 

分 类 号：F29[经济管理—国民经济]