价格与收入对中国居民卷烟需求和烟草控制的影响  

IMPACT OF PRICE AND INCOME ON CIGARETTE DEMAND AND TOBACCO CONTROL IN CHINA

作　　者：姚婷婷[1] 毛正中[1] 胡德伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学华西公共卫生学院卫生经济教研室,成都610041 [2]美国加州大学伯克利分校公共卫生学院

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2010年第10期1890-1892,共3页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：美国国立卫生研究院(NIH)Fogarty国际中心资助(R01TW05938-4)

摘　　要：[目的]估计最新的中国居民卷烟需求,以此为政府决策者制定政策时提供可靠的依据。[方法]利用1990~2005年的全国时间序列集合数据,建立卷烟需求函数,采用对数-线性回归模型估计卷烟需求的价格弹性和收入弹性。[结果]卷烟需求的价格弹性和收入弹性分别为-0.23和0.58。[结论]通过提高烟税来控烟是一个双赢的方法,既可以减少烟草消费对健康造成的负面影响,又可以增加政府的总税收。[Objective] To estimate the new demand for cigarettes in China, so as to provide basis for formulating strategies. [Methods] By using the aggregate time series data from1990-2005 in China, we estimated the function of cigarette demand, and estimated the price and income elasticities on the demand of cigarettes by logarithm-linear regression model. [Results] The estimated price and income elasticities were -0.23 and 0.58, respectively. [Conclusion] Raising tobacco tax is a win-win method in tobacco control in China, which could not only reduce the negative impact on health, but also increase government revenue.

关 键 词：价格弹性 收入弹性 卷烟需求 控烟 

分 类 号：R197[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]