台风疑难路径的理论探讨  

THEORETIC DISCUSSION OF UNPREDICTABLE TYPHOON MOTION

作　　者：李小凡[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海台风研究所

出　　处：《热带气象》1990年第1期23-31,共9页

基　　金：上海市科学技术委员会自然科学基金资助项目

摘　　要：本文通过尺度分析得到稳态台风在移动坐标系中的简化动力模式,从而得到台风平均移动的一维非线性控制方程,并对此方程进行解释分析,得到了平衡点及其稳定性特征和跨临界分叉特征。指出,在台风周围流场较弱时,台风原地打转和出现“疑难路径”是由台风本身固有的动力特性决定的。By scale analysis, a simplified dynamic model of steady typhoon on moving coordinate was constructed. Furthermore, one-dimensional nonlinear equation of mean typhoon motion was obtained. By analysing, the equilibrium points and their stability and characteristics of transcritical bifurcation were investigated. It is pointed out that when steering flow of typhoon is weak, the looping and unpredictable motion of a typhoon is dependent on its own inherent dynamic nature.

关 键 词：台风 路径 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]