变压器油纸绝缘可靠性的威布尔混合评估模型  

Weibull Mixed Evaluation Model for Reliability of Oil-paper Insulation in Transformer

作　　者：王有元[1] 袁园[1] 李剑[1] 杨丽君[1] 李寅伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室,重庆400030

出　　处：《高电压技术》2010年第4期842-848,共7页High Voltage Engineering

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2009CB724508)~~

摘　　要：油纸绝缘是电力变压器内绝缘的主要组成部分,其可靠性水平直接决定着变压器的正常运行。为此,提出了一种基于威布尔分布模型的变压器油纸绝缘可靠性评估方法,用于评估变压器油纸绝缘的可靠性,保证油浸式电力变压器的可靠运行。该方法在对相关特征参量进行深入分析的基础上,确定了聚合度、糠醛体积分数、酸值等7个特征参量作为反映变压器油纸绝缘可靠性的特征参量,并建立了油纸绝缘可靠性评估的威布尔混合模型;根据各特征参量的试验数据,利用极大似然参数估计法计算模型参数,得出相应可靠度的威布尔分布模型;应用熵权法计算各特征参量对应子体评估模型的动态权重,较好地反映了各子体评估模型在混合评估模型中的重要程度以及试验数据的全面性与准确性对混合评估模型的影响;最后通过不同寿命阶段的变压器油纸绝缘的可靠性评估实例验证了该方法的可行性。Oil-paper insulation is the key component of power transformer internal insulation. Its reliability directly determines the normal operation of the transformer. Therefore,a reliability evaluation method for oil-paper insulation of transformer based on Weibull distribution model was proposed,and it could be employed to assess the reliability of the oil-paper insulation and ensure the reliable operation of the transformer. Firstly,degree polymerization of insulation paper,furfural,acid and other five characteristic parameters were chosen to reflect the reliability of oil-paper insulation on the basis of the in-depth analysis of the relevant characteristic parameters,and the Weibull mixed model was established to assess the reliability of the oil-paper insulation. Secondly,according to the test data of the various characteristic parameters,the corresponding reliability function was obtained using maximum likelihood method; Thirdly,the dynamic weight of the corresponding sub-evaluation model of the characteristic parameter was calculated by applying the entropy method,and it well reflected the importance of the various sub-evaluation model in a mixed evaluation model and the comprehensiveness and accuracy of test data on the impact of the mixed evaluation model. Finally,the reliability evaluation of different life stages for the oil-paper insulation verified the feasibility of the method.

关 键 词：变压器 油纸绝缘 可靠度评估 威布尔分布 熵权法 特征参量 

分 类 号：TM855[电气工程—高电压与绝缘技术]