普通公路驾驶员期望车速调查分析与建模  

A Survey and Modeling of Driver's Desired Speed on Ordinary Highway

作　　者：李鑫铭[1] 陆建[1] 谭丹丹[2] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通规划与管理江苏省重点实验室,南京210096 [2]江苏省交通科学研究院,南京210017

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2010年第2期16-20,共5页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

基　　金：国家安全行动计划项目(批准号:2009BAG13A07);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(批准号:2007BAK35B02);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划项目(批准号:NCET-08-0115)资助

摘　　要：为了解普通公路驾驶员的车速选择机理,对驾驶员进行了期望车速问卷调查,对驾驶员的个人信息、车辆特征、以及驾驶员对超速10%的认可态度等可能影响期望车速的因素进行了重点调查。根据限速值的不同,分80、60和40 km/h 3个等级进行了调查,并为各等级公路选取了代表路段,由具有类似驾驶经历的驾驶员认真填写。对435份有效问卷进行了分析,发现期望车速广泛存在于驾驶员心中,驾驶员在行车过程中会使车速尽量维持在期望车速附近。期望车速主要受限速值、驾驶员的驾龄、对超速10%的态度以及车辆性能等因素的影响,驾驶员的性别和年龄对期望车速的影响不显著。采用逐步回归法,得到了期望车速的计算方法。对期望车速的特点、交通安全措施以及调查方案中可供改进的地方进行了总结。In order to better understand driver＇s choice of speed on ordinary highway,a survey on driver＇s desired speed was carried out.The survey contains driver＇s information and vehicle＇s characteristics,desired speed and driver＇s attitude towards 10%speeding.The surveys were distributed to drivers with similar driving experiences interviewed on representative road segments from each functional class,who were asked to respond to three speed limits： 80km/h,60km/h and 40km/h.Altogether 435 response questionnaires were collected.It is found out that drivers mostly formulate their own desired speed and they would try hard to maintain their driving speed approximately around it.Desired speed is affected by speed limit level,driver＇s driving age,driver＇s attitude toward excessive speed,and the vehicle properties.However,the influence by the gender and age of driver is found very minor.The model of formulating desired speed is established through a stepwise regression.In conclusion,this paper provides a summary to the findings related to desired speed,the approaches for improving safety based on such findings and suggested improvements to the future survey.

关 键 词：交通工程 期望车速 公路限速 交通安全 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]