危机预见失灵与范式危机——对主流宏观经济学的反思与批判  

Crisis Foresee Failure and Paradigm Crisis——Reflection and Criticism to Mainstream Macroeconomics

作　　者：崔学东[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学系,天津300071

出　　处：《学术月刊》2010年第5期78-83,共6页Academic Monthly

基　　金：南开大学张彤玉教授主持的教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目"当代资本主义经济新特征"(08JJD790150)阶段性成果

摘　　要：对金融危机预见的失灵再次使主流宏观经济学成为学术争论的焦点。迄今,主流宏观经济学经历了三代范式的演变:新古典综合范式、新古典宏观经济学范式和新新古典综合范式。其范式演变的路径是以新古典理论为内核,不断赋予更加严格的微观基础,用动态随机一般均衡模型说明市场持续出清并自动趋向充分就业均衡增长路径的瓦尔拉斯一般均衡。主流宏观经济学否认全面危机发生的可能性,或将危机产生的原因归结为政策失误、技术冲击等外生因素,掩盖市场经济的内在缺陷,极力宣扬市场经济是一种自然、自发和最优的经济组织形式,强调政策干预的无关性和无效性。然而,对经济危机预见的屡屡失灵和范式的不断转换表明,主流宏观经济学以强化微观基础提高其预测性的方法论是错误的,存在着严重的理论缺陷和范式危机。作为新自由主义政策的指导理论,其政策导向是错误的,更不能预见危机。Mainstream macroeconomics once again becomes the focus of academic Criticism, due to its failure to foresee financial crisis. Mainstream Macroeconomics has experienced three generations of the evolutional paradigm： neoclassical synthesis, neoclassical macroeconomics and new neoclassical syn- thesis. The evolution path is make neo-classical theory as its core and reinforced with more rigorous micro-foundation. New consensus using DSGE model to illustrate continuing market clearing and au- tomatically tend to full employment equlibrium or Walrasian general equilibrium. Based on this, it de- nied the possibility of a comprehensive crisis, or attributed crisis causes to exogenous factors such as policy failures, technological shocks and cover up the inherent deficiencies of the market economy. Furthermore, new consensus vigorously boosting ideas that market economy is a natural, spontaneous and optimal forms of economic organization and stressed the irrelevance or invalidity of policy inter- ventions. However, the constant transformation paradigm and repetitive predict failures on crisises in- dicate that methodology of mainsream is wrong, there are serious theoretical defects and paradigm cri- sis. As the guiding theory to neo-liberal policies, its policy orientation is misleading and impossible foresee the crisis.

关 键 词：主流宏观经济学 预见失灵 范式危机 

分 类 号：F012[经济管理—政治经济学]