哈尔滨郊区人为鼠疫疫源地鼠类种群动态分析  

ANALYSIS ON POPULATION DYNAMICS OF RODENTS IN MAN MADE PLAGUE FOCUSES OF HAERBIN SUBURBS

作　　者：李仲来[1] 杨岩[2] 陈曙光[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学数学系 [2]黑龙江省卫生防疫站

出　　处：《兽类学报》1999年第1期37-42,共6页Acta Theriologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金

摘　　要：根据黑龙江省哈尔滨市郊区人为鼠疫疫源地１９５２～１９９６年达乌尔黄鼠密度监测资料，建立了黄鼠密度的自回归模型Ｄｔ＝０１３７４＋１１３０２Ｄｔ－１－０４７５４Ｄｔ－２＋０８０３３Ｄｔ－３－０４６８０Ｄｔ－４，对１９９７～２０００年的密度进行了预测。１９５２～１９８０年，人工捕黄鼠率极为显著地影响黄鼠密度（Ｐ＜０００１）。在该地区，１９８２～１９９６年共捕啮齿动物６种，其中黄鼠和大仓鼠为野外优势种，褐家鼠为室内优势种，其余为常见种。大仓鼠、黑线仓鼠、黑线姬鼠均与夜行鼠总捕获率正相关（Ｐ＜００１），逐步回归模型为总捕获率＝０５２１９＋１１７３３大仓鼠＋１０３１２黑线仓鼠＋１１２７３小家鼠＋０９２４２褐家鼠（Ｐ＜００００１）。黄鼠密度与捕获率不相关（Ｐ＞０１０）。According to the population of the rodents in man made plague focuses of Haerbin suburbs, Heilongjiang Province of China in 1952～1996, the autoregression model of density of Spermophilus dauricus was obtained using time sequence method,i e.D t =0 137 4+1 130 2D t -1 -0 475 4D t -2 +0 803 3D t -3 -0 468 0D t -4 . And the forecasting densities of them were given in 1997～2000. The densities of S. dauricus were influenced very significantly by the artificial rodenticide rates of them ( P <0 001) in 1952 ～ 1980. There were six rodent species in this region from 1982 ～ 1996, with S.dauricus and Cricetulus triton as the outdoor dominant species, and Rattus norvegicus as the indoor. And the common species were others. There existed positive correlation relationship between the catch rate of night rodent and C. triton ,and C. barabensis ,and Apodemus agrarius respectively ( P <0 01) . The stepwise regression model was (the catch rate of night rodent)=0 521 9+1 173 3( C triton )+1 031 2( C barabensis )+1 127 3( Mus musculus )+0 924 2( R. norvegicus ) ( P <0 000 1).There was not relationship between the density of S.dauricus and the catch rate of night rodent ( P >0 10).

关 键 词：人为鼠疫疫源地 达乌尔黄鼠密度 大仓鼠 褐家鼠 

分 类 号：Q958.111[生物学—动物学] R516.801[医药卫生—内科学]