智能电网黑启动群体决策的可靠性分析  

Reliability Analysis on the Group Decision-making Results of Black-start Strategies in Smart Grids

作　　者：林振智[1] 文福拴[1] 薛禹胜[2,3] 周浩[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江省杭州市310027 [2]国网电力科学研究院 [3]南京南瑞集团公司,江苏省南京市210003

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2010年第9期17-22,共6页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2008BAA13B10);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(20090461352)~~

摘　　要：智能电网要求黑启动决策结果具有高可靠性。在此背景下,提出了基于熵的思想对黑启动群体决策结果的可靠性进行分析,构造了量化黑启动决策可靠性的指标。通过求解每一个决策专家的决策熵,可得到其决策水平,进而得到专家群体的综合决策水平,从而可以了解黑启动群体决策结果的可靠性,为决策专家重新评估各黑启动方案提供帮助,达到提高黑启动决策可靠性的整体水平和优化群体决策结果的目的。分析结果丰富了智能电网黑启动决策支持系统的研究,使得调度人员能够了解黑启动决策结果的可靠性并做出满足可靠性水平要求的最优黑启动决策。通过算例对所提出的方法进行了验证。High reliable decision-making results for black-start are required in smart grid. Based on the idea of entropy,a new method for the reliability analysis on the black-start decision-making results is proposed,and an index for quantifying the reliability level of black-start decision-making and measuring the decision-making level of the experts concerned is presented. The decision-making reliability level of each decision-maker such as dispatchers and/or other power system experts could be obtained by calculating the decision-making entropy,and then an integrated decision-making reliability level is attained. Based on the results of the reliability analysis,the decision-makers could reappraise their black-start strategies. As a result,the integrated reliability level could then be improved and the black-start decision-making results optimized. Furthermore,the reliability analysis could extend the theoretical framework of the black-start decision support system in smart grids,and its results would be helpful for dispatchers to understand the reliability of the obtained black-started restoration strategy and to ultimately make the optimal decision-making of the black-start strategy with the accepted reliability level. Numerical examples are served for demonstrating the developed method.

关 键 词：智能电网 黑启动 多属性群体决策 可靠性分析 决策熵 

分 类 号：TM76[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]