从稳定人口与人口再生产认识总和生育率真实涵义  

Understanding the Real Content of TFR in the Perspective of Stable Population and Reproduction

作　　者：马瀛通[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人口与发展研究中心

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2010年第2期24-34,共11页Chinese Journal of Population Science

摘　　要：文章阐述了总和生育率的来源、内涵及其理论基础,论述了人口粗、净再生产率表征更替生育水平与用总和生育率来表征更替生育水平的差异与不同;阐述了稳定与非稳定人口的差异和稳定人口理论的不足之处。文章指出,总和生育率属于稳定人口的指标,在度量非稳定人口的生育水平时,总和生育率是一个假定性条件极强的指标,必然要与实际非稳定人口生育水平存在差异。因此正确认识以总和生育率的真实涵义颇具现实意义。This paper aims at better understanding total fertility rate (TFR).It addresses the origin,meaning and theoretical basis of TER,discusses the difference between gross reproduction rate (GRR),net reproduction rate (NRR)and TFR in analysing the replacement fertility level,illustrates the difference between the stable population and the non-stable population,and points out that the total fertility rate is a stable population indicator.Therefore,there is an inherent error in measuring fertility for non-stable population by applying the total fertility rate because the total fertility rate is an indicator based on a strong assumption.Only clearly knowing its limitations,can we clearly understand the problem of its application in fertility analysis,population projection and population policy.

关 键 词：总和生育率值 人口再生产率 稳定人口与非稳定人口 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]