对《消费者价格指数与生产者价格指数：谁带动谁？》一文的质疑  

A Query to the Paper "CPI vs.PPI:Which Drives Which"

作　　者：徐伟康[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学工商管理学院,430073

出　　处：《经济研究》2010年第5期139-148,158,共11页Economic Research Journal

摘　　要：本文发现贺力平等作者《消费者价格指数与生产者价格指数:谁带动谁?》一文对消费者价格指数(CPI)和生产者价格指数(PPI)之间关系所作的实证分析存在问题,如权重系数估计、协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等。贺文通过实证检验得出:CPI是PPI的格兰杰(Granger)原因。进而由此提出整个文章的结论:在影响以CPI来衡量的国内通货膨胀中,需求方面因素相对大于供给方面的作用。而本文用与贺文相同的数据,建立VEC模型得出与贺文相异的结论:在短期和长期内,CPI和PPI互为对方的格兰杰原因。因此本文认为贺文的主要结论是值得怀疑的。The author finds that the empirical investigation to the relation of CPI and PPI in He＇s paper has some problems, such as the estimate of weight coefficient, the examination to the cointegration and Granger-causality. The empirical outcome of He＇s paper is that： CPI is the Granger-causality of PPI. He＇s paper gives the conclusion from this result： the demand-side factors have played a more important role than supply-side factors in CPI inflation in contemporary Chinese economy. While the author derives the different result by a VEC model with the same data： the CPI is the Granger-causality of PPI in the short and long-run, and vice verse. Therefore, the point of He＇ s paper is controversial.

关 键 词：消费者价格指数 生产者价格指数 价格传递 质疑 

分 类 号：F014.3[经济管理—政治经济学]