农业干旱风险研究进展  

New Advances in Agricultural Drought Risk Study

作　　者：何斌[1] 武建军[2] 吕爱锋[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]北京师范大学民政部/教育部减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《地理科学进展》2010年第5期557-564,共8页Progress in Geography

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40601091;40801216);国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAD20B02;2006BAC18B06)

摘　　要：农业干旱风险分析是近年来兴起的一个新的研究领域,这一研究不仅是农业旱灾风险管理的基础和前提,也是农业干旱风险区划和灾前损失预评估的理论基础。本文系统阐述了农业旱灾风险的内涵及构成要素、风险分析体系及研究现状,在此基础上指出,依据自然灾害风险分析基本原理,从农业旱灾危害性以及承灾体脆弱性角度系统地建立农业旱灾综合风险分析程序框架和指标体系,尤其是开发针对每一风险要素的、动态的数学模型和指标体系是当前干旱灾害风险时空格局研究的当务之急。The analysis of agricultural drought risk is not only the prerequisite of drought risk management,but also the theoretical basis of risk division and of the damages,and it has become a new research focus in recent years.The connotation,the constituent elements,the analysis sys-tem,and the study status of agricultural drought disaster were described in this paper.On this ba-sis,this paper pointed out that,from the agricultural drought hazard and vulnerability point of view,the systematic establishment of a comprehensive drought risk analysis framework,especially the development of dynamic mathematical models and index system for each risk factor,is the re-search priority in the study of temporal and spatial patterns of agricultural drought risk.

关 键 词：农业干旱 风险 危险性 脆弱性 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]