突出危险性预测中的瓦斯浓度实时指标研究  

Study on Real Time Index of Gas Content in Prediction of Outburst Danger

作　　者：王栓林[1] 樊少武[1] 马超[1] 

机构地区：[1]煤炭科学研究总院矿山安全技术研究分院,北京100013

出　　处：《煤炭科学技术》2010年第5期54-57,65,共5页Coal Science and Technology

摘　　要：对煤矿安全监控系统采集的瓦斯浓度序列进行分析,运用时间序列分析法建立突出危险前兆信息获取模型,包括指数平滑预测模型和瓦斯浓度变化模型,指数平滑模型用来预测瓦斯浓度值,并用预测误差来确定其最佳平滑系数;瓦斯浓度变化模型包括偏差和方差指标来检查突出前兆的瓦斯浓度变化信息,依据指标特点和现场三八制掘进模式,选择偏差的计算时间长度为8 h、方差为1 h,基于偏差和方差,建立突出危险性实时预测综合指标G,与钻屑指标法相比发现:将综合指标G用于突出危险性实时跟踪预测具有较好的可行性、准确性和实时性。The paper had an analysis on the gas content sequence collected by the mine safety monitoring and control system.The time sequence analysis method was applied to establish the warning signs information collection model of outburst danger,including the index smooth prediction model and the gas content variation model.The index smooth prediction model could be applied to predict the gas content value and the prediction error could be applied to set the optimized smooth coefficient.The gas content variation model,including the deviation and variance indexes could be applied to check the warning signs gas content variation information of the outburst.According to the index features and the site three shifts everyday and eight-hour work system heading mode,the deviation calculated time period was selected as 8 hours and the variance was selected as 1 hour.Based on the deviation and variance,the real time prediction comprehensive index G of the outburst danger was established.In comparison with the drilling cutting index method,the application of the comprehensive index G to the real time prediction of the outburst danger would be good in feasibility,accuracy and real time.

关 键 词：瓦斯浓度指标 实时预测 煤与瓦斯突出 钻屑指标法 

分 类 号：TD713.2[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]