耕地非农化对经济增长贡献的区域差异研究——基于山东省17个地级市面板数据的分析  

A Studyon Regional Differences in Contribution of Cultivated Land Conversion to Economic Growth Based on Panel Data Analysis of 17 Cities in Shandong Province

作　　者：张基凯[1] 吴群[1] 黄秀欣[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学公共管理学院,南京210095

出　　处：《资源科学》2010年第5期959-969,共11页Resources Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目:"耕地保护的体制与政策研究"(编号:04BZZ035);国家自然科学基金项目:"集体土地价格及其收益分配机制研究"(编号:70573051)

摘　　要：耕地非农化是社会发展的必然现象,处理好经济发展和耕地非农化的关系是直接影响到社会可持续发展的关键问题。本文利用山东省17个地级市1995年-2006年的面板数据研究了山东省耕地非农化对经济增长贡献的区域差异,并从资源配置效率角度提出了各地级市耕地非农化的最优配置数量。研究结果表明:①17个地级市的耕地非农化对经济增长的贡献率基本都在3%以上,有的甚至达到13%,在经济增长过程中,土地对经济增长的贡献是无法低估的;②耕地非农化贡献率呈现出明显的区域差异性,从总体分布趋势上看,贡献率由鲁东地区向鲁西逐渐递减;③各地级市的耕地非农化对经济增长贡献的区域差异不仅仅受经济发展水平的影响,而且也受城市化、二三产业结构、居民消费水平等因素的影响;⑤根据各地耕地非农化的最佳配置值与现实配置量之间的差异进行耕地非农化适度性分析,发现鲁中地区的适度性最高,而鲁东地区和鲁西地区则分别出现了耕地非农化严重过度和严重滞后现象。Cultivated land conversion is considered a general trend during social and economic development.To that end,properly dealing with the relationship between economic development and cultivated land conversion plays a key role in promoting sustainable development.The authors made use of the panel data of cities in Shandong Province during the period 1995 to 2006 to systematically examine regional differences in the contribution of cultivated land conversion and its optimal quantity to economic growth.Results showed that first the contribution rate of cultivated land conversion to economic growth was generally larger than 3 percent for all cities, some even reaching 13 percent.Consequently,the contribution of cultivated land conversion to economic growth was found to be an appreciable magnitude in economic growth.Second,the contribution rate of cultivated land conversion to economic growth exhibited marked regional differences,with showing that the cites with the highest contribution rate were Qingdao,Yantai, Weihai,and Jinan,the cites with a moderate contribution rate were Zibo,Tai＇an,Jining,Weifang, Linyi,Binzhou,Dongying and Zaozhuang,and the cities with the lowest contribution rate were Dezhou,Liaocheng,Heze and Rizhao.As for spatial distribution,the contribution rate gradually decreased from Ludong to Luxi.Third,regional differences in the contribution of cultivated land conversion to economic growth were found to be jointly affected by economic development level, urbanization,the secondary and tertiary industrial structure as well as residents’consumption levels.It can be concluded that cultivated land conversion is an inevitable trend in social progress in that economic development for a region would have to be sustained by considerable amount of land for construction converted from cultivated land.Forth,on the basis of the differences between the best allocation value and the real allocation,it was found that the Luzhong regions were moderate,the Luxi regions significantly exceeded and the Ludong regions

关 键 词：耕地非农化 配置效率 影响因素 区域差异 山东省 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F327