外商直接投资对我国出口长期影响的实证分析——基于外部市场容量和外部占有率的分析框架  

An Empirical Study of FDI's Long-term Influence on China's Exports:Based on frame of outer market demand and outer market dominating rate

作　　者：仲鑫[1] 马光明[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院,北京100875

出　　处：《北京师范大学学报（社会科学版）》2010年第3期96-105,共10页Journal of Beijing Normal University(Social Sciences)

摘　　要：近年外商直接投资企业出口占我国出口比重越来越大,而金融危机以来我国吸收外商直接投资出现了显著下降,同期我国出口也出现了下降。鉴于我国宏观经济逐年增大的出口依存度,有必要从理论和实证角度考察我国吸收外商直接投资对出口的长期影响,并为我国近期吸引外资提供政策建议。产品生命周期理论、内部化理论等许多经典理论以及已有的实证研究都说明了吸收直接投资对一国出口可能具有促进作用。在其基础上,一个改进的基于外部市场容量和外部占有率框架的出口决定实证模型表明,1985年至2008年我国吸收直接投资对出口确实具有显著促进作用,但其对我国出口的促进作用存在2-3年的时滞。政府应当充分重视近期吸收外商直接投资减少对我国出口的消极作用,在注重其结构优化的前提下继续吸引外资流入。In recent years,the foreign direct investment companies take an increasing ratio in China＇s export.However,China＇s FDI inflow takes an obvious decrease trend after the financial crisis.Meanwhile,China＇s export decreases,too.It is therefore necessary to investigate the long-run influence that FDI inflow casts on China＇s export,so as to provide suggestions for the government FDI policy.Many existing theories and empirical researches simply that FDI inflow may have positive influence on the exports.Based on these research,an improved export model,with the FDI inflow as one factor under the frame of outer market demand and outer market dominating rate,shows that China＇s FDI inflow indeed promoted China＇s exports during 1985~2008 with a lag period of two or three years.Therefore,the government should lay emphasis on the negative influence that the decreasing FDI inflow has cast on China＇s export and continually attract the FDI inflow in the premise of the structure optimization.

关 键 词：外商直接投资 金融危机 外部市场容量 外部市场占有率 

分 类 号：F12[经济管理—世界经济]