化工园区区域定量风险评价若干问题探讨  

Discussion on the Several Problems in Quantitative Risk Analysis of Chemical Industry Park

作　　者：孙东亮[1] 蒋军成[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京工业大学城市建设与安全工程学院,江苏省城市与工业安全重点实验室,南京210009

出　　处：《工业安全与环保》2010年第5期50-51,59,共3页Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection

基　　金："十一五"国家科技支撑计划课题2006BAK01B03-3

摘　　要：针对化工园区区域定量风险评价中危险源辨识与事故后果分析中的问题进行了探讨。危险源辨识目前广泛采用重大危险源辨识标准,但其仅考虑危险物质的种类及数量。在已有的考虑事故连锁因素的改进成果基础上,提出针对各种火灾、爆炸、中毒事故效应进行规律研究的思路,以完善危险源辨识指标体系。针对目前极端事故后果保守分析方法的不确定性,依据某装置内危险物质的多重特性,提出事故后果效应的转换与叠加思路,以得到更接近实际的事故效应评价结果。提出的改进思想将使区域风险评价结论更为准确实际,为园区的规划与发展提供可靠依据。This paper discusses several problems in hazard source identification and accident consequent analysis of quantitative risk analysis of chemical industry park. The standard of identification of major hazard installations, which only includes the type and number of hazardous substance, are generally considered. Based on the previous work considering domino effect, the law of various accident consequence effects, such as fire, explosion and toxicity, should be explored in the next work, in order to improve the identification technology of hazard source. For the uncertainty in conservative analysis of worst accident consequence, on the basis of multiple hazard characteristics of hazardous substances, the method of conversion and superposition is put forward to get more accurate results. The improving methods would be the basis for the planning and development of chemical industry complex.

关 键 词：化工园区 定量风险评价 危险源辨识 事故后果分析 改进方法 

分 类 号：X937[环境科学与工程—安全科学]