集合预报方法在不同类型天气中的预报性能评估  

Evaluation of the Prediction Performance of Ensemble Forecast in Different Synoptic Systems

作　　者：陈丽芳[1] 陈勇明[1] 

机构地区：[1]杭州市气象局,杭州310051

出　　处：《科技通报》2010年第3期331-338,共8页Bulletin of Science and Technology

基　　金：浙江省气象局开放研究专项(kf2008006)资助

摘　　要：以MM5模式为基础,从预报模式的不确定性出发构造了一个8个成员的浙江省集合预报系统。对系统2006年运行中不同类型的高影响天气的集合预报结果进行性能评估和检验,检验内容包括降水、温度和风速。结果表明:集合预报具有更好的预报稳定性,总体上讲要好于单一预报。集合预报对于秋季连阴雨和台风天气等不同天气类型的降水预报随降水量级体现不同的优势。集合预报对冬季低温和夏季高温等极端温度的预报能力较差,但对风速的预报体现一定优势。The operational ensemble forecast system for Zhejiang regional precipitation is established.The model is based on MM5 in the system.Eight different configurations of MM5 are used to produce an 8-member ensemble forecast.The forecasts in 2006 are verified in the fields of ensemble mean,probabilistic forecast and spread.The result show ensemble forecast is better than single forecast.The forecast ability of ensemble is different in continuous rain in autumn、typhoon in summer and other synoptic situations.The ensemble forecast is not good at temperature forecast,but it is good at speed forecast.

关 键 词：集合预报 参数化方案 检验 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]