基于压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型的江西省农地集约利用综合评价及政策建议  

Comprehensive Evaluation on Intensive of Agricultural Land Use Based on PSR Model and Policy Suggestion

作　　者：姚成胜[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]南昌大学中国中部经济发展研究中心,江西南昌330047 [2]南昌大学经济与管理学院,江西南昌330031

出　　处：《农业现代化研究》2010年第3期312-316,共5页Research of Agricultural Modernization

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目"中部地区城市化进程中的粮食安全水平测度及其对策研究"(编号:09YJC790136);江西省高校人文社科青年基金项目"江西省耕地集约利用的动力机制及其综合评价与对策研究"

摘　　要：基于PSR模型,从时间尺度上对江西省1990～2007年的农地集约利用水平进行了动态评价。结果表明:1990年以来,农地压力指数呈现出快速上升后趋于稳定;农地状态指数则经历了上升-下降-上升3个阶段;响应指数则呈现出先快速上升后,趋于稳定并略有上升的趋势;而农地集约利用综合指数则一直呈线性上升的趋势。运用多元回归定量分析经济社会发展对农地集约利用影响的结果表明,城市化是农地集约利用水平不断提高的主要驱动因子,其影响最大;人均GDP和农地集约利用水平存在正相关关系,其影响最小;第三产业的发展则与农地集约利用程度存在负向相关关系。从农业科技、物资使用效率、城市化进程、第三产业、农民收入,提出了提高江西省农地可持续利用水平的对策建议。Based on the existed study, using PSR model, the evaluation indices of intensive agricultural land use in Jiangxi province were carried out. According the indices, the intensive agricultural land use from 1990 to 2007 in Jiangxi was quantitatively assessed. The result shows：the pressure index of agricultural land rose quickly at first, then it became steady; the state index experienced three stages rising-descending-rising; the response index rose quickly at first, then it became steady and had a slight rising trend; while the comprehensive index of agricultural land use intensity had a linear rising trend all the time. Using multiple regression analysis, the impacts of the economic and social development on the intensive agricultural land use were analyzed. The result shows：urbanization was the main driving factor of intensive agricultural land use, and had the greatest impact on it; the average GDP per person had positive relation with intensive of agricultural land use, and had the smallest impact on it; while the development of tertiary industry had negative relation with intensive of agricultural land use. At last, in order to improve the sustainability of agricultural land, some advices were put forward.

关 键 词：农地 集约利用 PSR模型 评价 江西省 

分 类 号：F323.4[经济管理—产业经济]