近50年来河北省降水和温度极端事件分析  

Analysis of Extreme Precipitation and Temperature Events in Hebei Province over Last 50 Years

作　　者：王晓东[1,2] 潘学标[1,2] 龙步菊[2] 李春强[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北省生态环境监测实验室,石家庄050021 [2]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2010年第2期170-175,共6页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：河北省生态环境监测实验室生态环境监测研究开放基金项目"河北省气候及其变异的生态环境效应动态评估研究";教育部高等学校科技创新工程重大项目培育资金项目(708013)

摘　　要：极端气候事件对农业生产有重要影响。利用河北省(含北京和天津)17个站点1957-2006年逐日降水、最高、最低和日平均气温资料,采用线性分析并结合GIS空间分析的方法,对河北省50a来极端天气事件的变化趋势及空间分布特点进行了研究。结果表明:1957-2006年河北省暴雨日数、极端降水事件的频率都在减少,而且干燥事件的频率在增加,但其线性增加趋势并不明显;暴雨和极端降水的变化趋势呈明显的东西差异。极端高温事件增加而极端低温事件减少,冬季变暖的趋势比较显著;低温日数有显著减少趋势,但高温日数有一个微弱的上升趋势,其变化趋势的空间分布具有很好的一致性。河北省具有干暖化倾向,农业生产应采取相应的适应对策。There were important impacts of extreme climate events on agriculture. Based on the daily mean temperature,daily maximum temperature,daily minimum temperature and daily precipitation data at 17 stations in Hebei Province（include Beijing and Tianjin）from 1957 to 2006,using linear analysis combined with GIS spatial analysis methods,the spatial and temporal characteristics of changes in weather and climate extremes in Hebei Province over last 50 years were studied. The results showed that both the numbers of heavy rain days and the extreme intense precipitation events decreased,and dry spell events increased,however its increasing tendency was not distinct. There were obvious differences in trends of the extreme intense precipitation and the number of heavy rain days between the east and west parts of Hebei Province. The extreme hot days increased,while the extreme cold days decreased,and the tendency of winter warming was remarkable. Low temperature days significantly decreased,but high temperature days increased a little,it had a very good consistency in the spatial distribution of the extreme temperature events. There were warming and drying trends in Hebei,and the adapting agricultural technique should be taken.

关 键 词：气候变化 极端降水 极端温度 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]