中国小麦消费现状及趋势分析  

Status of Wheat Consumption and Its Trend in China

作　　者：王玉庭[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所/农业部智能化农业预警技术重点开放实验室/中国农业科学院智能化农业预警技术与系统重点开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《中国食物与营养》2010年第5期47-50,共4页Food and Nutrition in China

基　　金：国家科技支撑重点项目"农产品数量安全智能分析与预警关键技术支撑系统及示范"(项目编号:2009BADA9B01);中国农业科学院农业信息研究所基本科研业务项目(项目编号:2010-J-25)

摘　　要：本文对我国近20年来小麦消费的变化规律和发展趋势进行了分析。国内小麦消费主要表现为总量经历了"上升-下降-反弹"的变化,小麦消费结构变化显著,制粉、种子和损耗消费量及所占比例下降,饲用和工业消费量及所占比例稳步提高。经济发展和人口增长是导致我国小麦消费量和消费结构变化的主要因素。预计未来国内小麦消费总量将在下降中趋稳,小麦制粉消费量将继续小幅下降,饲用消费将成为小麦消费的主要增长点,工业消费将保持趋势性增长。The changes of domestic wheat consumption were analyzed in the past two decades in the paper. Wheat consumption experienced ＂up to down to bounce＂ . And the proportions of flour, seeds and loss of wheat declined, the proportions of feed and industrial use of wheat increased steadily. Economic development and population growth were the main contributing factors to the changes of wheat consumption and structure. In the future, domestic wheat consumption would be stable on the decline, wheat flour consumption would continue to decline slightly, wheat feed consumption would be the main growth point and wheat industrial consumption would maintain a trend growth.

关 键 词：小麦消费 消费结构 经济发展 人口增长 

分 类 号：F326.11[经济管理—产业经济]