省级主体功能区人口分布格局探讨——以宁夏回族自治区为例  

Research on the Optimal Population Distribution of Main Functional Oriented Areas in Province level:A Case Study of Ningxia Province

作　　者：刘正广[1] 马忠玉[1] 殷平[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学环境学院,北京100872 [2]北京交通大学经济管理学院,北京100044

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2010年第5期169-174,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

摘　　要：人口分布、资源环境和经济布局的空间协调是主体功能区划分和规划的重要基础和依据。合理的区域人口分布格局要实现不同的主体功能区容纳和发展适度规模的人口,这不仅受到人口自身数量的变化规律影响,而且还受到区域资源环境的约束,以及经济发展对生活水平的限制。本文以宁夏为例,在预测县级行政区人口数量的基础上,根据城市经济发展水平、建设用地面积、城市供水量和农村经济发展水平、粮食产量和农村供水量分别计算各县域内城市地区和农村地区的最优人口容量,将人口预测与人口容量进行综合分析,动态研究宁夏的人口分布格局。结果表明,宁夏北部川区人口自然增长的速度较慢,大部分县级行政区人口容量受土地因素的限制比经济发展和水资源的限制大,人口增长和人口容量的对比分析显示,此地区人口容量大,是未来人口集聚的主要地区;相比而言,南部地区人口自然增长速度较快,而人口容量受水资源和经济发展的限制较大,人口容量低,是需要转移人口的重点地区。此结果为主体功能区的划分和区域人口管理政策的制定提供了依据。The optimal population distribution is one of the serious elements concerned to the zoning and planning of main functional oriented areas （MFOA）. A rational population distribution of MFOA not only considers the quantity and distribution of population, but also cares about the spatial coordination of population with local natural resource, environment and economic development. This article takes Ningxia for example based on predicting of population guantity of counties in Ningxia. On the one hand, the amount of each county＇s population was projected in normal growth. On the other hand, the optimal population capacities of each county were determined separately by comparing economic carrying capacity, land carrying capacity, and water resource carrying capacity in urban and rural areas. It is concluded that population in the north Ningxia increased slowly, and the limit of land is more obvious than the limits of economic development and water resource for the population carrying capacity in most counties of this region, which may be the leading area for population agglomeration. On the contrary, population in the south increased rapidly, and water resource and economic development are the main limited factors for population carrying capacity there, which is supposed to emigration. In addition, the result of population increase and population carrying capacity is useful to the zoning of MFOA and establish suitable population management policies.

关 键 词：主体功能区 人口分布格局 人口预测 人口容量 宁夏 

分 类 号：C924.23[社会学—人口学]